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Free Nate Newton Fantasy Football League |
| Fear Itself | 
Date Sat Oct 24 12:26:27 a.m. ET 2009
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| Apparently my efforts have failed, and Randy will not/can not return to writing his "Guru" column this week (too busy doing first-hand research on the epidemic of LadyBoy Surprise in Thialand? ), and you're stuck with me again this week. I see last week's column generated over 100+ hits (not ALL of them my attempt to pump up the count), so somebody must be reading this stuff.In the college game, they talk about 'Rivalry Week' where in-state teams play each other, often for some fictitious trophy (i.e., the Apple Cup, between Washington and Washington State). This week we see FNN's version of that. Let's start with the Battle of the Calverts and see who will be sleeping on the living room couch next week.  Sumthin' 'bout Brett vs. Amish Justice: Fun fact!: It was Vince's naming of his team as 'Amish Justice' that originally inspired the 'Twisted Vengeance' franchise name. Somehow my mind linked 'Justice' with 'Vengeance' (hate to have a psychiatrist get ahold of that reasoning), and what's more 'Twisted' than those electricity-hating, barn-erecting, butter-churning Amish from Weird Al's 'Amish Paradise' video? As for CalvertWar, Liz loses her Ravens (Flacco and D. Mason) to BYES, and T. Edwards to injury, so she will be hurting at QB, although I'm sure an e-mail to Randy's House of Inept QBs could net her someone to put up negative points for her, like all of Randy's QBs do for him. A very favorable match-up for Joseph "Live and Let" Addai (I L-O-V-E that nickname  !)vs. the Rams, but as I'm painfully aware thanks to Donald Brown, Addai is in a RBBC and won't get all the touches. Thomas Jones had the GAME OF HIS LIFE last week, and is due to fall back to earth this week. I've been hyping Vince's Forte/Turner duo, and still like them beter than what Liz has. I like Vincent Jackson vs. the Chiefs, but Berrian/Hester don't impress.In the what-the-hell-was-he-thinking department, other than to help Rich BEAT ME this week, I have no idea why Vince dumped Larry Johnson and his very favorable match-up vs. San Diego. You were more impressed with an injured, non-point-scoring Jerious Norwood? Had to have room on your bench for a hold-out who plays on a run-first team Michael Crabtree? Still, Amish Justice loses only T.J. Who's-Your-Momma to a bye and has 3 other solid WRs to compensate. Favre/Cassel have OK match-ups, and R. White and Welker have favorable ones. Verdict: Grab those pillows and blankets from the hall closet Vince, as your victory over SBB ensures a few nights on the living room couch! Lindy Hoppers vs. C'Ville Survivors: Matt finally gets Trew Bromo back on the field, while K. Warner has a tough match-up vs. the Giants. I'd aslo like to point out to Matt that oh, Fred Jackson is your TOP SCORING RB, so hey, here's a novel idea...maybe you actually want to PLAY him? Just a thought. Pick your favorite Saint RB, throw in Steven Jackson, and voila!, you have your RB trio. Dean is hurt by the loss of Ray Rice to a BYE, but has VERY favorable match-ups with his Carolina RBs vs. Buffalo (you may want to play 'em both this weekend) and R. Grant against Cleveland. I like Dean to win the RB category due to the match-ups. Can Randy Moss continue his record-shattering ways that started against Tenn. while playing Tampa Bay? Or will a trip across the pond to London just disorient him? Does Randy Moss have to run his patterns on the opposite side of the field because he's in England? Hard to say, but Dean has nothing else in the WR dept., so I say Matt's 2 Austins out-perform Dean's gang. Verdict: Matt gets all hizzy on his fashizzy and goes ol' school on Pops to score the Win. Dog-sitting privileges and oh, 1/4 of his inheritance also go out the window, ala the Calverts, but that's the price of victory in the FNNFFL. War Eagles vs. Purple Sunday: One of the things you can't control in fantasy football is how well your opponent scores against you, and in that regard, Brian ranks at the top (or is it the bottom?). The 807 pts. scored against him is the most in the league. Conversely, Rich and I have had the two least amount of points scored against us, and we currently have the 2 best records. Maybe this is the week things start to even out for Brian. His match-up with Terry is a tough one, as no real disparities in the two teams match-ups jump out at me. Both teams have excellent QB match-ups this week, so no real advantage for either team there. I prefer using the 3RB/3WR strategy over some combination of 2RB/4WR or 3WR and 2TE, so I'm gonna hold that against Terry because he doesn't have 3RBs he can use. McGahee has been marginalized by Rice, and is on a bye, so he's down to J. Lewis (RB49) and Portis (RB20). Brian can choose from Benson (RB7), Bradshaw (RB14) and Westbrook (RB33), so I like Brian in the RB category. As Rotoworld put it, "There won't be a more motivated player in the league Sunday than Cedric Benson" facing his old team. Because of Brian's loss of M. Sims-Walker to the bye, his WR corps is even more putrid than usual. L. Evans becomes even less effective with R. Fitzpatrick (who must always be described as 'noodle-armed') throwing to him, and K. Walter is only about the 3rd or 4th option in Hou. these days, limiting his effectiveness. S. Holmes match-up against Minn. is enough to give Terry the WR category. Verdict: History shows that you need at least a 6-7 record to safely avoid re-naming, which means Brian has to go 6-1 from this point on (good luck with that!). So, as he debates the merits of being named the Cleveland Steamers versus the Queef Nuggets next season, Brian really does get his first win of the season in a very close match-up. Whitecaps vs. Ladyboy Surprise: For the 2nd week in a row, Mark gets serious BYE week help in his quest towards respectability. Jeff loses C. Johnson and K. Moreno, with only T. Holt out for Mark. With T. Brady showing what he was capable of last week, another dream game vs. Tampa Bay (allowing 3rd most passing TDS, with 13) lies on the horizon. Expect more big pts. The Skins Defense has been good this yr., so don't expect more than an ordinary day from D. McNabb. Both J. Campbell and D. Anderson don't figure to be pluses for their owners this week. Don't forget **I** am still available on the waiver wire! While Mendenhall will get goal line chances, expect Slaton's value to be primarily pass-catching out of the backfield. For Mark, playing against a team that gave up over 100 yds. to C. Portis last wk., L. Tomlinson should have a good game. M. Lynch gets football's 29th ranked run defense, and the NYJ combo of T. Jones/L. Washington were red hot vs. Buffalo, making Leon a good bet to try and stuff the ball down the Raider's throats this wk. While you gotta like Jeff's Colt WRs vs. St. Louis, how long before the 'mercy rule' kicks in and Indy just stops throwing the ball? Maybe at 35 - 0? Limited potential for Jeff's Colt WRs. M. Colston will likely face a rookie RCB and will be a good play this wk. For Mark, "Sidney Rice has long had star-caliber talent, but won't come close to repeating his Week 6 175-yard career game against Steelers LCB Ike Taylor. Taylor's strength is defending bigger wideouts." D. Driver has been averaging 5 catches/79 yds. and this can only improve vs. Cleveland. Verdict: BYES hurt the Whitecaps, and Mark goes on a heady 2-game winning streak! The Meat Curtain vs. Randy's Dandies: On 27 Sept., Randy stated "I'm here to issue the irresponsibly bold prediction that the Dandies will win the 2009 FNNFFL title behind a pair (and possibly a trio) of rookie QB's." Really now, Randy; and what type of wager would you like to place on that prognostication? Cause I'm ready to put the considerable royalties this column has given me onto the proposition you will NOT win the '09 league title. Just tell me how many '10 draft dollars you got backing up that hype and we are ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!! This however is THE WEEK to play The Meat Curtain, as they are down 2 stud RBs and a WR (Jones-Drew, K. Smith; N. Burleson). Randy loses only some of his mediocre SEA RBs and assorted Detroit Lions. Fred may win this game on his QBs alone. For M. Schaub, "The 49ers are stout against the run (No. 7 overall, only 3.3 YPC against), but can be beaten by the pass as Matt Ryan showed in Week 5 (329 yards, three all-purpose TDs)." Throw in P. Rivers in what is expected to be a high-scoring game vs. Kansas City. Let's see what can Randy counter with. Well, at least he gets the awfulness that is his QBs in the same game. No need to switch channels to watch those negative points roll in! I mean come on, Sanchez hasn't had a good game since wk.#1, and JeMarcus IS Jemarcus...his QB rating when throwing to WRs is 18.0. I understand that if a QB goes in, throws 1 incomplete pass, his rating is 39.6. So what does that say for JeMarcus? As mentioned, TMC is down to 2 back-ups(T. Choice, T. Hightower) at RB due to byes. Choice BETTER  stay a back-up to M. Barber (for my sake), but should be effective vs. Atlanta in the 8-12 touches he does get. Arizona is a pass-first team, so unless Hightower picks up alot of Warner's dekes and dunks, he won't be much of a factor. 'A very good Ronnie Brown' is likely to out-perform them both in a high-scoring game vs. the Saints. Randy wins a category!In all fairness, Randy is down one of his big 3 stud receivers with C. Johnson out with a BYE/injury (take your pick). L. Fitzgerald remains a "must-play" (WR#6) even against a tough Giants defense, and S.F. has a much tougher run DEF than pass DEF, giving A. Johnson a "plus" match-up as well. TMC does have a red-hot H. Ward vs. a vulnerable Vikings secondary without their best CB A. Winfield, but no other TMC receiver excites me. Verdict: Although TMC has better long-term potential, my gut just tells me RD wins this one due to all the BYES. GAME OF THE WEEK Fear Itself vs. Bird Brains: In the least-storied rivalry in FNN history (only 3 games to date), the Bird Brains remain thoroughly dominant, winning all previous match-ups. Despite a 5-1 record leading into this game, FI's weakness remains its receiving game. FI's Top WR (D. Bowe - 54 pts.), remains the lowest-scoring WR1 on any team in the league, with every other team having at least 1, and some as many as 3, WRS who have out-scored D. Bowe (the BB have 2 in C. Ochocinco and S. Smith). P. Manning and A. Peterson can only get me out of so many jams, and until my receiving corps steps up, I will be overly dependent on them to carry the team. While Manning has a dream match-up vs. the Rams, A. Rodgers vs. Cleveland is nearly as good. I rate the QB2 match-ups (J. DelHomme vs. Buffalo, C. Henne vs. New Orleans) about even. Henne could be involved in a high-scoring game, but also has the potential for a multi-turnover game. "All Day" Peterson faces the top-ranked Steelers run defense, while F. Gore faces a Houston team that has given up the most rushing TDs (10) in the NFL. L. Johnson has a good match-up vs. the Chargers, while R. Williams should get some part of the high-scoring Saints-Dolphins affair. Unless D. Brown really breaks out in the Rams game, even with a favorable match-up he won't get enough touches to put more than 10-15 pts. MBIII is also in a time-share (about 60-40 with T. Choice), and I'm not optimistic vs. a Falcon DEF that shut down M.Forte last wk. (23 rush yds.). The WR match-up is likely where I lose this week. "Chad Ochocinco, the No. 7 overall fantasy WR. He'll see a lot of Bears RCB Zackary Bowman, who's been burned all season" and S. Smith faces the 31st-ranked Cardinal pass defense. D. Henderson could have a big day, or be totally shut-out, depending on his place in the Saints pass rotation this week. S. Breaston has been solid every wk. he's played (8-16 pts.), and so has D. Bowe (11+ pts. in 4 of the 5 games he's played), but I don't see it as being enough. Verdict: OK, here's my nightmare scenario. Rich goes into MNF (where I have the Eagle DEF playing vs. my beloved Redskins) with a 8-15 pt. lead. Close enough so that a good Eagle DEF performance against my Redskins wins the FNN game, but I'll have to cheer for Washington to lose the NFL game. I'd much prefer Rich either have a giant lead on me (25+ pts.), or a small one (under 8 pts.), where I don't have to hope the Skins offense gets crushed to see FI win its match-up. Still, history repeats itself and Rich goes to 4-0 lifetime against me. Oh well, at least there are still gams left vs. Vince and Randy, who, conversely, have never beaten ME. So, although 'Nobody Asked Me,' that's how I see this weekend's FNNFFL match-ups. *** Please note: Statistics and quotes were liberally borrowed from Rotoworld columns in the preparation of this analysis. |
| Bird Brains |
Date Sun Oct 25 9:36:49 a.m. ET 2009
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| Another very nice write up Chris. If it comes down to MNF between us, remember I have Cooley, too. 
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